Evaluating Environmental Threats Using Porter's Five Forces Model

I believe there is a significant factor missing from Porter’s five forces, and that the threat of becoming obsolete could be added as a sixth force. Some may say this would fall in to the category of substitute products, but I think there are significant differences. I can think of two industries off of the top of my head that could be used as examples: energy and technology. As technology becomes more advanced, old technologies are thrown out and discontinued. For example, a floppy disk manufacturer would become obsolete if they did not shift what they manufactured once CDs became the storage of choice. Consequently, even if they were to shift to CDs, once cloud technology became the norm, how would they transition into offering that kind of storage opportunity?

In energy, the classic “are we going to keep using oil” debate is what comes to mind. Coal, however, is an example of an energy form that is becoming more and more obsolete, and those companies who have not expanded into wind and solar technologies are going to suffer and eventually become obsolete.

The threat of becoming obsolete is different from the threat of substitute products in that companies can advance their technology to use the same “substitute” as another, but only if their strategy and models can support that kind of transition. A substitute for oil is technically wind, but unless that substitute becomes the mainstream form or preferred product form, it is still somewhat irrelevant. The threat of becoming obsolete is much stronger than the threat of substitute products because firms have the ability to transition to substitute products, but they don’t have the ability to force people to use something that is no longer the most advanced or “best” technology.

For Starbucks, the threat of becoming obsolete doesn't necessarily exist, unless foot traffic at restaurants continues to decline significantly. It does, however, have an interesting role to play in the recent acquisition of Whole Foods by Amazon. If I can order a coffee to my home or workplace from Whole Foods, and have it delivered via Drone by Amazon Prime, why would I seek out a Starbucks? Starbucks is almost like the middle man between me and my coffee, so if I am able to cut it out entirely and increase my efficiency and time spent elsewhere, why wouldn't I? It seems as though Starbucks is trying to push Siren Works in order to combat this--by continuing to make Starbucks a desired "destination" rather than a means to and end, they won't become obsolete. For me, however, it is simply a coffee stop on my way to work.